Circus Maximus Tigers (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners
SS OU: robjr (55) vs (45) Twixtry - Close one that could go either way. Twixtry has quietly done very well in recent months, but robjr has been pretty consistent in UU, the lower tier with the most respectable playerbase. I have not seen much from either in the new generation, but robjr has more overall experience and has shown more outplaying potential. If he is able to keep his clock high enough to think things through, then I trust rob to play a solid, aggressive game and win in a tight one.
SS OU: 1 True Lycan (35) vs (65) Empo - Empo has been pretty great for the last year or so, including in early SS. I think he is a pretty safe pick here against 1TL, who has been quiet as of late and never has reached Empo levels of achievement.
SS OU: Tace (45) vs (55) FLCL - Almost went with the upset here, but FLCL has looked pretty good in SS so far. Tace had a nice late 2019 in SM and could definitely take a few games off of top players this tour, but I am not sure where he is at in SS and FLCL has been solid recently and consistent over the years. Could be close for sure.
SS DOU: MajorBowman (60) vs (40) qsns - qsns went radio silent mid-Snake only to come back for the last week or so, which did not leave the best taste in my mouth. He is a good dude and a capable player, but I do not know how motivated or active he is. Bowman always puts in the work to get to where he needs to and while he did poorly in a few recent officials, I can put more confidence in him based off of historic performances at least.
SS LC: Osh (49) vs jake (51) - Hard to say as I have a sudden urge to hype Osh due to him being underrated heavily in the PRs, but jake was a bit better in SSD3 imo. Assuming jake keeps up his motivation and levels of preparation, I think he will have the edge as Osh is not quite as good with the builder and lacks much on-roster support. They are both pretty solid in battle; I may even give Osh a small edge there honestly, but I favor jake overall in the new generation with all things considered.
SM OU: Eternal Spirit (65) vs (35) Gondra - Gama, as annoying as he may be in the STours discord, is a great player. He is fearless and his teams are able to capitalize on his playstyle quite well. Gondra has been pretty lost in recent games, especially in the most recent edition of SSD3. Perhaps he will be back in a better form here, but I do not have high hopes and even prime Gondra is not quite as good as Eternal Spirit, so definitely favoring the Tigers retain here.
ORAS OU: Luigi (40) vs (60) xImRaptor - Raptor looked pretty good throughout this year. When he uses solid teams, I genuinely believe he can be the full package and put up consistent positive records in officials. He perhaps has been more quiet than established players or bigger names, but do not mistake him for your everyday newer tournament player as he is very capable. Luigi has never done too well in team tours and his ST victory is pretty much the only positive we got for him. While that was great and will be remembered, it does not leave me feeling overly confident in his ability to win this match.
BW OU: Zokuru (40) vs (60) Caetano93 - Seeing this as an SPL game really makes you think. Anyway, Caetano is actually solid as a player, even for this strong field. Both are disadvantaged from the builder, but Caetano's risks at least tend to have a decent chance of paying off despite being fairly cheesy. Zokuru's understanding of the tier is poor and forces inconsistency upon himself before the game even starts often enough. I cannot favor Caetano too heavily against anyone as he's too likely to use a random Victini or Cofagrigus, but he is the better player and his teams are less shaky.
DPP OU: Vay (60) vs (40) Hyogafodex - Vay looked solid recently and Hyoga is more of a utility old generation substitute than he is a strong starter in my eyes. I think he has a shot because DPP is a "variance madhouse" or w/e Shake said in his post on countless occasions, but Vay has stronger fundamentals and should be able to bring strong teams.
ADV OU: dekzeh (55) vs (45) Alexander. - dekzeh can still play and that goes a long way. He may bring some ratchet with Baton Pass Vaporeon, but Alexander.'s teams are nothing special and dekzeh has at least shown some signs of recent activity, so I'll give him the nod.
GSC OU: McMeghan (45) vs (55) FriendOfMrGolem120 - McMeghan is obviously solid at DPP and one of the best players out there, but I have to go with the upset. FOMG120 looked great during WCOP and going into last SPL was hyped up as a very strong GSC option before having to RBY due to Lavos being on his team. I really think this will be a breakout season for him in GSC and I think McMeghan is going to take a few weeks to get into top form in GSC after focusing on other metagames recently.
RBY OU: Kaz (60) vs (40) ErPeris - Kaz looked good last year and his opponent is someone I don't know too well.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (8) vs (4) Team Raiders
SS OU: TDK (55) vs (45) Trosko - TDK knows SS inside-and-out. Trosko has been inactive since the draft and before then I did not see much from him either. I am sure that he knows what is used and understands the tier decently, but I have seen a lot more from TDK and they are close in terms of overall level-of-play, so I will favor TDK.
SS OU: Christo (60) vs (40) reiku - Christo has been grinding on the ladder a fair amount whereas reiku has been pretty quiet. It is hard to be too sure of anything about reiku -- ranging from if he will even play to what form he will be in. I expect Christo to win given recent form and metagame understanding, but rumor has it Trosko is pretty close with reiku, so perhaps if he is doing well then reiku will as well.
SS OU: Nat (60) vs (40) Lusa - Nat, similarly to Christo, has been grinding it out in SS OU and looks pretty good. Lusa is not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, but I fear he will be outmatched here.
SS DOU: marilli (45) vs (55) kaori
SS LC: Luthier (60) vs (40) LilyAC - Luthier shows me that he is a pretty fearless player no matter what tier he is in. I know he did well in Snake and I think that will continue during SPL. Lily is a respectable opponent, but I do not think she has the ability to outmaneuver Luthier and I also think she has to worry about time management in-game, too.
SM OU: blunder (60) vs (40) Posho - blunder has been doing pretty great in SM over the last few years. Posho has been pretty absent in this generation, mainly playing BW and even ORAS on occasion. I feel like blunder will be in better form and also is just the stronger player at this point. I think that if this were in BW it would be a different story, but it's not and you gotta favor blunder against this entire SM field atm.
ORAS OU: CrashinBoomBang (55) vs (45) Lycans - Lycans is crafty, capable of winning against anyone in any tier. In addition, CBB is still working off of a pretty limited sample size, having only played WCOP in recent memory. I think he will do well as he has kept up with ORAS nicely, but I cannot favor him too heavily against Lycans. Still think he is the pick given his understanding of the metagame and Lycans being a bit unreliable at times.
BW OU: John W (40) vs (60) dice - dice is a great player; his understanding of the BW metagame is second-to-none and he usually can use this to bring strong teams. John W is a bit newer to the metagame, but his grasp is strong nevertheless. I favor BW due to having more experience and being a better teambuilder, but with a few breaks John W can take this game.
DPP OU: The Grand Babido (51) vs (49) ToF - While ToF's taking the PR personally for years when it is just a fun article done by volunteers with rankings based off of community input is a bit lame, I think he is a great player and he uses pretty interesting teams every year. Unfortunately for him, I think Bab has him beat by a hair. Bab is one of the best DPP players historically and his gameplay abilities are still there for the most part. I am very excited to see what both of these guys bring this week and throughout the entirety of the tournament as the metagame has moved forward a bit over the last year or so ofc, but these guys predominantly played prior to then. I think ToF may adjust easier as he has played DPP more in recent years, but Bab has a pretty active team and is no slouch when it comes to picking things up himself.
ADV OU: Gilbert arenas vs pasy_g - already happened
GSC OU: gorgie (35) vs (65) Earthworm - Earthworm looked lost at times last season, putting up a poor record. This time around, his price-tag is lower and he has the support of dice, so it is more likely for him to meet the adjusted expectations I'd say. gorgie is a bit of a misfit in this GSC field in the eyes of a lot of people and there is no way to know what form he is in right now. I will favor Worms in hopes that he has a comeback season.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller (55) vs (45) MetalGro$$ - Troller has been the best RBY player recently. Metal is solid, but I think he is more mistake prone and Troller will be able to take advantage of that.
Ever Grande BIGS (6) vs (6) Indie Scooters
SS OU: soulgazer (55) vs (45) talah - soulgazer is the better player by a decent margin. I don't really mind that it's a tier he is less familiar with probably as the generation is still relatively new and sg has a whole cartel's worth of support. I will leave it close as neither is proven in this metagame and all of sg's success is in very different settings, but I think he's going to take it.
SS OU: aim (45) vs (55) Jayde - Hard to be sure, but I've hopped on the Jayde hype train as he seems to be active and he was great in his BW prime. aim seems to have been struggling in OU tournaments as of late. I think the new generation may help him, but I would like to see more before I am sure. This could go either way honestly, but again I view Jayde as a strong SS prospect so here's hoping.
SS OU: ima (45) vs (55) Lopunny Kicks - ima has been playing really well as of late; I think he will go positive this SPL. Lopunny Kicks is a step ahead of him though. Lopunny Kicks has been doing well for over a year now and I view him as close to being a top player. I think that he will transition nicely to SS and have a strong season for the Scooters if he avoids using Italian headass nonsense.
SS DOU: Ezrael (60) vs (40) Memoric - Memoric seems pretty hyped despite not playing many officials lately, so maybe that's a sign that I am missing something. With this said, Ezrael had a dominant SSD3, so gonna go with him here.
SS LC: trash (45) vs (55) tazz - Really close game between two guys in the middle of the field imo. I favor tazz, but I think trash can take it, especially with him having plenty of support.
SM OU: Adaam (40) vs (60) ZoroDark - Zoro has been good in SM dating back to last SPL. Adaam has not really done much of anything in the tier himself. Zoro is someone I also am higher on than most, but yea I think he will take it here and I think Adaam may struggle to adjust at first, too.
ORAS OU: Sabella (55) vs (45) Quaze - Quaze showed he can play, but honestly he looked like he was swinging for the fences every turn vs McMeghan and that just is not necessarily if you can find a balanced, consistent approach. I think he has some work to do to gain the fundamentals necessary for big tournament success. Sabella has been around for a while on the other hand and while he may be a bit less flashy than Quaze, he is eager to continue his success with the Bigs and I think ORAS is lowkey his best tier, so gonna favor him here.
BW OU: Fakes (51) vs (49) zf - This may be surprising to some, but I honestly think that while zf is a great player, he has been hyped up in BW a bit too much for his level of play in the tier. I think he has a ton of great ideas, much like dice, but the execution is not on the same level in the builder or in the battle quite yet. Last year he had a middling showing with dice's support and this year he lacks that and the field is stronger, so I struggle to see him dominating at first. I think as the tournament goes on, he is likely to get better though as he is a strong, adaptable overall player. With this said, I am not nearly as high on him as most. Fakes, on the other hand, finds a way to get his hands on every BW team ever either through asking around repeatedly or now through having the cartel's support. I also think he is a superb pilot, even underrated in the modern day. Assuming he is active enough to prepare and play, I think he takes it in a nailbiter. That is a big if and I think that zf may be a little better in BW specifically, so I'm only giving him a small edge atm.
DPP OU: GaryTheGengar (55) vs (45) Honor - GTG can be childish at times, but last year he was great on the Tyrants and the support will be even greater this time around. I think Honor does well in individuals like BW Championship, but ultimately struggles in team tournaments due to his teams and how he goes about preparing. I think this leaves GTG in an advantageous position overall and I favor him despite Honor's recent success.
ADV OU: eden (45) vs (55) CyberOdin - Odin looked good in WCOP last year and eden just struggles to stand out much in my eyes. Maybe the support of CALLOUS will be a difference maker, but I am not counting on it.
GSC OU: Descending (20) vs (80) Fear - Fear should be favored against everyone in this pool atm. Descending in particular is inexperienced and will likely encounter struggles initially when adjusting. Would not be shocked to see IFM in relief, but maybe he will get it together eventually. Not this week though.
RBY OU: Nails (55) vs (45) Bedschibaer - Nails was better last year, but honestly I am not too sure as Beds was on the more unfortunate side of things last year and he had a handful of really strong showings mixed in.
Stark Sharks (5) vs (7) Wi-fi Wolfpack
SS OU: teal6 (40) vs (60) Charmflash - Charm is one of the best players in SS OU and was one of the best in late SM OU. I think his retain was a blessing for the Wolfpack and he is a great builder, especially when given the support of ABR. teal6 is a bit of a wildcard and he can beat anyone, but I think Charmflash w1 is a tall-task and he is likely to struggle. I expect him to bounce back and do well overall though.
SS OU: bro fist (60) vs (40) Star - Still have not seen john play an SS game, but he is a great overall player and Star has yet to impress in an official.
SS OU: xray (60) vs (40) The Hallows - xray is determined to have a strong SS showing after not being too great throughout SM. He wants to branch out from ORAS and I think he will prove that he is capable here. Hallows is promising, especially with plenty of support, but I think xray is the stronger player and has looked strong in SS thus far.
SS DOU: Mr.GX (40) vs (60) SMB - SMB is pretty great overall and Mr.GX is mostly unknown, especially in officials.
SS LC: EviGaro (45) vs (55) HT - HT did well in the ever-so-important Ekans tour and has the support of Star. EviGaro is pretty much a question mark in SS LC until we see some games this SPL. Hard to put much confidence into that despite her proving that she is capable overall through her RU and unofficial showings.
SM OU: frisoeva (40) vs (60) Welli0u - Really like the fire Well in SM this SPL. He has done well in the tier when it was the main generation and has a leg up on a majority of the playerbase this SPL, too. Friso showed he was a legit player during SSD3, but I think he is a bit less experienced and strong than Welli0u, who I will be favoring here to beat Friso.
ORAS OU: Erzengel (45) vs (55) Sjneider - Sjneider in ORAS is weird because he did super well last Snake in NU, but has never done well in OU in an official. He has ABR, Star, BKC, etc. to help him, so I will favor him against a virtual unknown, but it's hard to put much confidence in his in-game performance quite yet. Erzengel has xray and bro fist, but I know very little about him as a player and tbh that is not usually a good sign in official tournaments in big OU tiers.
BW OU: SoulWind (60) vs (40) Pearl - SoulWind is poised to have another dominant SPL campaign in BW OU. I do not see Pearl stopping him. Despite being a very capable player, coming with a high price tag that leads to big expectations, and having all the support in the world, I think SoulWind will be too much for him. This is not a shot at Pearl either as I think he will do just fine despite the field being strong in BW. I think you can put anyone who has not played BW over the years against one of the top players in this field and they will struggle earlier on. As the tournament goes on, perhaps that will change as they will gain more experience and familiarity. For Pearl, he already has a foundation, but his WCOP opponents were nothing particularly special. SoulWind can use just about anything here and I would not be too shocked. Given that, it actually makes me a little less inclined to go more than 60/40 in his favor, but that is still a pretty convincing margin.
DPP OU: DeepBlueC (55) vs (45) BIHI - DBC was great last year. He is up against his former team, which is always a little awkward, but BIHI is going to be under pressure here and who knows how that'll go for him. I think he will ultimately settle in and win some games this SPL, but I think DBC is a little better in the builder and in the battle.
ADV OU: Conflict (45) vs (55) BKC - BKC was not himself last year, but some signs point towards him returning to form. I do not know if he will live up to the massive price-tag, but I do know that he will be trying his best to win some games in ADV and he is the most capable player in the field of doing that. Conflict is a scrappy opponent and can likely bring some surprising -- potentially tilting -- things to the table against someone like Kevin. But Kevin's fundamentals cannot be underestimated and his teams are always strong. I expect him to pull it out in a closely-contested battle. Looking forward to this one and both of their ADV games in general.
GSC OU: Blightbringer (40) vs (60) sulcata - Cannot say I subscribe to the Blightbringer is awesome hype sentiments that I see finding their way into most SPL discussions nowadays. 18k for someone with limited experience in any generation is hard to really justify in my eyes. I get it -- auction timing, availability issues, etc. so it was not a true 18k at all. But still, people believe he will put up a strong record and I just do not see it. While the PRs were unkind to Sulcata in his description, I happen to think he is alright and should be able to take this game if he does not fuck around as his main flaw is misprioritizing things/getting sloppy in mid-games.
RBY OU: Genesis7 (51) vs (49) Sceptross - Genesis is a pretty strong RBY player and I think for the last few years he was ready for this. It is still his first game and he has never been too consistent in officials, so I will not favor him by a large margin at all. Sceptross showed some promise last year, but ultimately was mediocre. Gonna go with the pride of Canada here.