power
uh-oh, the game in trouble
TLDR:
This year, you'll be predicting the probability a given game goes a certain way rather than the winner. For example, in previous years if we had the matchup:
SM OU: ABR vs TDK
You would either bold ABR or TDK.
Now, you'll be asked to predict a probability instead, so if the matchup was
SM OU: ABR vs TDK
You would respond with the probability you think ABR will win, so if you think ABR has a 60% chance of victory you would respond with 60.
Your responses will be scored according to the Brier Scoring system. The goal is to finish with the LEAST number of points. Brier scores are calculated as follows: If you predict ABR to win 60% of the time, then you will receive 40^2 = 1600 points if ABR wins and 60^2 = 3600 points if TDK wins. If you predict ABR to win 50% of the time, then you will receive 50^2 = 2500 points either way. If you predict ABR to win 100% of the time, then you will receive 0 points if ABR wins but a whopping 100^2 =10,000 points if TDK wins, so avoid overconfidence, especially since this is Pokemon and no one ever has a 100% chance of winning any game. Brier scores punish overconfidence and reward accurate estimates of the true probability. If you think ABR truly has a 60% chance of winning this game, your optimal play is to predict 60% (You can show with a little bit of calculus that it's not possible to game the system, so just predict honestly and you will be rewarded if you are accurate.)
I'll post the standings after each week; again, the goal is to receive the least number of points. The form has been pre-filled with 50 in every entry; let me know if you're having any issues with the form.
The form will be closed Tuesday night EST; any games that occur while the form is open will not count towards results.
- Predict the Probability the left Person wins
- Scoring penalizes overconfidence, so guess the true probability, do not put 100% on the better player always
This year, you'll be predicting the probability a given game goes a certain way rather than the winner. For example, in previous years if we had the matchup:
SM OU: ABR vs TDK
You would either bold ABR or TDK.
Now, you'll be asked to predict a probability instead, so if the matchup was
SM OU: ABR vs TDK
You would respond with the probability you think ABR will win, so if you think ABR has a 60% chance of victory you would respond with 60.
Your responses will be scored according to the Brier Scoring system. The goal is to finish with the LEAST number of points. Brier scores are calculated as follows: If you predict ABR to win 60% of the time, then you will receive 40^2 = 1600 points if ABR wins and 60^2 = 3600 points if TDK wins. If you predict ABR to win 50% of the time, then you will receive 50^2 = 2500 points either way. If you predict ABR to win 100% of the time, then you will receive 0 points if ABR wins but a whopping 100^2 =10,000 points if TDK wins, so avoid overconfidence, especially since this is Pokemon and no one ever has a 100% chance of winning any game. Brier scores punish overconfidence and reward accurate estimates of the true probability. If you think ABR truly has a 60% chance of winning this game, your optimal play is to predict 60% (You can show with a little bit of calculus that it's not possible to game the system, so just predict honestly and you will be rewarded if you are accurate.)
I'll post the standings after each week; again, the goal is to receive the least number of points. The form has been pre-filled with 50 in every entry; let me know if you're having any issues with the form.
The form will be closed Tuesday night EST; any games that occur while the form is open will not count towards results.
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