JAA closure (Bryant Park Tourney Tree) + pairing theory

[skarm]

Yeah, I just made another thread about JAA. Finally, after a long struggle that lasted about two days, tad38 and I put together the tournament tree for Bryant Park. As it turns out tracking everyone down was useless since Minh had a picture of the entire tournament board from the morning of the tournament.

http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=218800

There are some errors on it, like "Thurman Joe" should be "Joe Thurman", and Cesar's last name is spelt wrong, etc., but these are because of tad38 and not any other information we received.

Obviously, the second chance qualifiers were the following:

Joe Thurman
Chris "AmazingAmpharos" Immele
Kayhon Tahmaseb
Miroslawa Morioka
Michael "BlueKiKatana" Macias
Kelley Luke
Greg "PsiUmbreon" Rowson

The Nintendo World winner, Peter "pikachu" Jiminez, was also revealed.

There are four corners of the tree, and its incredibly biased. Let me draw your attention to you the bottom left corner, aptly named "Smogon Corner". Looking past the obvious Horne vs. Hill match, which are Roy and Justin8649 respectively (more on this later), does anything else strike anyone as odd? Perhaps...

Calvin Chan, from Chicago was Mike "skarm" Papagianis' replacement.
Cesar Benitez, jr., from Denver, was David "Obi2Kenobi" Stone's replacement.
Tim Guo, from NYC, was Jason "Black Leather Jacket" Frank's replacement.

If this isn't a statement of rigging, it beats me what is. Obviously they knew Obi, BLJ, and myself wouldn't be attending, but this seems entirely too coincidental to be random. It seems like a big "hey look what we could have done." Maybe I'm paranoid, but if I need to spell it out:

Papagianis (Calvin/Chicago) vs. Stone (Cesar/Denver)
Winner plays:
Hill (Justin8649/Philadelphia) vs. Horne (Roy/Houston)
The further in the tree we'd meet Frank assuming he'd have won.

Okay, whatever Nintendo. Whatever.

Then we have the fact that Hill was swapped in to play Horne at the last moment due to an error with Michael "BlueKiKatana" Macias' game. Having talked to Macias, this doesn't seem to be intentional, but it is fully ironic. Not only did this damage Smogon's chances by matching Hill vs Horne in round 1, it also damaged Macias and SPP's chances. Macias was placed in the bottom right corner which housed his friend, Greg "PsiUmbreon" Rowson, and fellow SPP member Jiminez, the Nintendo World winner.

The question that truly needs to be answered is "Why was Macias pulled away?" He was put on the other side of the tree. It wasn't a small change. Was Kelley Luke equally not prepared, where as Hill and Horne were both ready? Would it have really mattered? All matches had to finish prior to Round 2 starting. Delaying two matches wouldn't have had any worse of an outcome as just Macias vs. Luke, assuming Luke had no trouble setting up.

Ironically, Hill's original placement against Luke would have kept him quite far away from his close friends. The same is actually true with Macias. It seems ironic.

Further, let us take a look at my original predictions and competitor analysis upon the closure of JAA:

http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11848

It is interesting that there were two Smogon vs. Smogon round 1 matches (Hill vs. Horne; Lam vs. Epstein), and one other Smogoner ended up playing the competitor I listed as the toughest non-Smogon competition (Judd "Kongler" Price vs. Stephen "IMAWario" Shotwell).

I also identified the following other competitors as top competition in addition to Shotwell:

Ryah Rosenberg
Julian Partovi
Fabian Ruiz
Calvin Chan
Colin Woods

It is futher ironic that the corner with the most Smogon members present (as well as the replacements for Papagianis, Stone, and Frank) got two of the competitors I listed as the toughest challenges in Ruiz and Chan (although it should be noted that Chan was the replacement for Papagianis).

As previously stated, Price ended up playing Shotwell, the toughest challenge I listed besides other Smogon members. Epstein and Lam were forced to play round 1 with the winner playing the winner of the match who would most likely be Woods. In the second side of that corner both Partovi and Rosenberg were located.

It seems that both Lane and Horenstein from Smogon were offered respite while being placed into the mainly SPP bracket, the bottom right. Let us not forget that Hill was originally would have probably met Horenstein in round 2 assuming there had been no last minute switch with Macais and he had beaten Luke. Forcing Hill into the "Smogon Corner" would have been much preferred to having Hill possibly face Horenstein in round 2.

Lane, it seems, got the respite and should have had at least two "free" rounds prior to playing another member from Smogon, which would have been "Hill" if there had been no switch, or Horenstein past that. The Bottom Right corner, or SPP Corner, seems to have been more designed to force the members of SPP to play each other rather than Smogon. In total there were three SPP members (Macais, Rowson, and Jiminez) at the very least. It is unknown whether the other competitors in the bracket, Akin, Luke, and Jones had ties to SPP.

So what about the Top Right corner, the one with Price, Shotwell, and the future Champion, Minh Ba Le?

Originally the match between Chris "AmazingAmpharos" Immele and Kayhon Tahmaseb was to be a "buy in" (such as in the NCAA). There were 33 original members to play in NYC, but Gabriel Guzman was disqualified for using cheat devices (Los Angeles was prior to Pokemon USA collecting competitor gamepacks at the end of each tournament, and instead he had to submit his in NYC itself). It is unclear where Guzman previously fit into the tree, but it eliminated the buy in match that Immele was supposed to have, presumably, against Tahmaseb since both competitors obtained tickets to Bryant Park as part of the online Second Chance qualifier.

It should also be noted that while Immele does have his own forums, he does visit Smogon quite often, and his round 1 match in the tree was put directly below Price vs. Shotwell. Had Guzman not been disqualified, Immele would have had to play an extra match. That's a 2/7 chance for his Second Chance ticket to force him a 6th match.

It is very interesting how this worked out. The odds of this happening must have been insane. Really now.

 

[Sir Chris]

TheCrownedKnight (1:38:08 AM): is your word of the day ironic?
Flying Snorlax (1:35:48 AM): yes
Flying Snorlax (1:35:50 AM): I jsut realized that X)
Flying Snorlax (1:35:52 AM): ironic.
TheCrownedKnight (1:38:18 AM): x)
TheCrownedKnight (1:38:21 AM): fuck off jerktown

 

[natalie]

i think you overthought about it and got paranoid maybe, or perhaps you're.. still.. a little bitter if you don't mind my thinking so

NINTENDO smogon NINTENDO smogon NINTENDO

que?

 

[goofball]

hmm...skarm's pairing theory in the flesh....

 

[ToP]

Either way, one Smogoner would have to come out of the Smogon vs. Smogon matchup, and in theory, it'd be the better player. If you're going to say that it wasn't fair, then you're complaining about having Smogoners getting booted out of the tournament early. This would mean that you think all Smogoners should have advanced farther. If that were the case, then they would end up playing each other anyway.

 

[Hipmonlee]

It's pokemon, bitterness is almost compulsory.

Have a nice day.

 

[skarm]

Either way, one Smogoner would have to come out of the Smogon vs. Smogon matchup, and in theory, it'd be the better player. If you're going to say that it wasn't fair, then you're complaining about having Smogoners getting booted out of the tournament early. This would mean that you think all Smogoners should have advanced farther. If that were the case, then they would end up playing each other anyway.

There is a difference to having Smogon vs Smogon in round 3 or the semis rather than having some of the core members play each other in round 1.

The semi finals we got looked like some great matches anyway, it was just disappointing to see people like Justin and Roy play each other round 1, as well as Kongler and IMAWario. I would have loved to see Roy, Justin, and Kongler play more, but I am still happy with the semis between jeps and Calvin/Minh and PsiUmbreon. Countering Explosion was awesome.

You really state the obvious when you say I would have preferred them to advance further. Of course I would have. They're my friends. It is just very coincidental the way it worked out, especially with the Justin - BlueKiKatana last minute switch.

 

[theamericandream38]

Yeah, I made a few mistakes, like mispelling a few things and forgetting to put that Preston Lane was Heretic. Oh well, I think it turned out good. You know, besides me agreeing with everything skarm said. That was pretty low of nintendo, if I do say so myself.

Oh, and if anyone cares, Minh also sent me this link which has some videos:
http://www.totalpokemon.com/events/bryant

semis, finals, and a few interviews are in there, as well as the Overview which shows all the winners, even the second chance winners.

 

[MarioMan2.0]

May I ROFL at the pure stupidity on Nintendo's part. If you are going to set the compeittion up, at least make it a little less obvious outside of round one.

You and I have discussed this before, Skarm, Nintendo does not like this forum or the people who participate and try to win. Perhaps it is because this forum teaches people how to actually play to win, and in Nintendo's eyes takes away from the fun, or perhaps it is more along the lines of Nintendo is just pissed at the fact that this forum is a hell of a lot better in terms of teaching how to play then anything NSider could come up with (Well most of NSider mind you :P) or it could be the fact that Smogon players are confident, very confident in their skills and when they come to tourneys they come to win.

Regardless of whatever the reason Nintendo employess do not care for Smogon, I am not at all surprised at the reaction to Smogoners in NY. Do not forget that the chances of all Smogoners going one on one in round one is very possible, although unlikely. I suppose Nintendo wanted to get as many Smogoners out so that Nintendo had a winner who would not promote this forum, or something along those lines.

I still continue to laugh, especially how they treated you two in Chicago over Smogon.

Ah well, tomorrow starts a new chapter.

 

[Queen]

How exactly, are brackets and the seeding for each respective player pool in said bracket determined at JAA? Is it all done "randomly" through a bracket making program or is everything done by hand there?


I ask because, even as fishy as that bracket looks, it may have all been a randomly generated fluke. I say this as someone who has seen such things happen before over the years while participating in and/or watching the Evolution fighting game nationals amongst other tournaments. To give an example, at Evolution 2k6 there was the notorious "Black Bracket of Death" for Marvel vs. Capcom 2 which featured a total of around 5-7 top level American players in a pool of 10 in which only 2 would be leaving to advance further on in the tournament (one in losers other in winners).

Mind you the people running the tournament have no beef with the Marvel community nor any of the players that were involved in that bracket, it was all just a coincidence. A lot of people cried foul play, but in the end they played their matches and the end the best of the best moved on.

I honestly hope this is the case (that it's a fluke) as I'd hate to think that the staff of a corporate sponsored tournament would do something as under-handed as to rig a bracket solely to spite one group.

If I may ask, how did the Smogon/Nintendo beef come about anyways?

 

[Articuno64]

As fishy as it all looks (especially considering the Nintendo rep we talked to was clearly biased against Smogon, who were apparently "a bunch of cheaters"), I don't see the point of posting this now. Nintendo can think whatever they want about Smogon, and we can think whatever we want about them. We know where we stand in competitive pokemon.

 

[Amazing Ampharos]

I lost my first round match in an embarassing way (I wasn't haxed, just outpredicted) so I had no chance to feel any unhappiness about my placement and rather decided to enjoy the whole free vacation factor. I somehow doubt that Nintendo could have actively discriminated against Smogon since, well, how would they know? I didn't advertise any connection with Smogon until I was already there.

Also, about the extra match, I apparently finished the 2nd chance qualifier exactly simultaneously with someone else down to the smallest time unit they could measure. Since it was a tie for the last spot, they decided to give us both the trip and have us play each other in a "pre-round". The disqualification was a lucky break for both of us as it cut out our extra match. On that note, it wasn't so lucky since we both lost in the first round, but that's just how it can go.

 

[Synre]

I thought this was incredibly suspicious while I was watching the live feed on JAAday although I am kind of skeptical now.

I don't think we really have anything to gain with conspiracy theories whether or not you are right, but it sure does make me want to shove my pokeballs up their ass next year. All the more reason to win, I suppose.

 

[Nightmare]

It doesn't take a smart person to see that it was rigged all the way. I'm not exactly a fan of Smogon, but you guys got the fuck screwed all the way. I saw this first-hand.

-James

 

[ToP]

You really state the obvious when you say I would have preferred them to advance further. Of course I would have. They're my friends. It is just very coincidental the way it worked out, especially with the Justin - BlueKiKatana last minute switch.

Well, yeah, I wanted them to advance farther too. Jason is right, it's kind of pointless now. We all know Smogon is the best : )

 

[obi]

I plan on winning next time, so I don't really mind when I face my fellow Smogoners. =) Actually, that's a lie, I want to face you guys at the end, because it's much more epic, and I just might lose.

 

[DM]

I'm with Jason. I mean, I was there, I saw it, it's all true. You guys have NO idea how disappointing it was to be getting into the elevator in the morning going to the event... only for Fish and I to get calls from Kongler and Justin saying that they were already eliminated, and Justin by Roy nonetheless.

Honestly, the whole trip was the experience of a lifetime, and the thing that makes me maddest about it all was skarm getting DQ'ed on account of nationality. Ghey.

 

[RonnyMcD]

I'm just gonna say it was all horrible luck. It happens.

 

[Bluekikatana]

BlueKiKatana here,
I’m leaning on the possibility that the first round pairing with Roy and I was indeed intentional X). I wasn't told anything about it at NYC, but Pokemon USA did know who I was offline and online. They also were closely following all the forum politics between the players. At NYC people were still weary of Roy thinking that he could cheat again, a few players didn't want to get paired against him first thinking that he'd be cheating. I knew that it be a dumb move for anyone to cheat for this tournament though, as competitors were already being disqualified left and right, so I was expecting everyone to battle clean.

Boy, was it a surprise when Gabriel got disqualified! It's a shame that they didn't let my brother take his place, as he was there and he was second place for Los Angeles. I asked Gabriel if he actually cheated for stats at Bryant Park, and he claimed he didn’t, so eh who knows. Either way though him and his brother are good people I play with them sometimes at my tournaments in Los Angeles.

Anyhow, after the Houston tournament, I made that vow of taking out Roy at NYC. Nothing personal though, cheating just ticked me off for official tournaments XP. I don't wish to get in a debate about that here either, just retelling the facts. It was humorous to see the actual scenario that I foretold play out as a possibility! Obviously too much coincidence to not be fixed. Anyways, despite that pairing going on, they did move me =/.

I explained this story before, but I'll do it again for those who don't recall. What happened was; it looked like my game was rewound to a previous save. I had 2 Pichu's in my party with the items I needed from them (they should of been in my PC). When I noticed this, I greeted Roy, told him what the issue was, and that it would be a minute or so because I had to go to the stands to ask my brother a question. I went to go ask him where the move deleter was, (I forgot and Mewtwo still had recover from the last save).


Once he told me, I ran back to my station (this took less then 3 minutes total), and when I got there they had already paired Justin with Roy instead (doubt this was intentional but who knows), and I heard Roy telling them that I was coming back and I was only taking a minute to get ready. I also was insisting to the judges that I was ready, but they had already moved me on the bracket. Anyways, it was a fun day, despite the funky pairing going on X). I hope they hold more tournaments like this in the future, as they give the TCG players tournaments like this like twice a year.

 

[Lexay]

The chances of this shit happening are so slim, I honestly think pairings were fixed.

AmazingAmpharos, they knew about Smogon way before you attented at Bryan Park. They checked our forums daily.

It's a shame Nintendo pulled something like this. Doesn't promote fair play at all. As for the Smogon "cheaters", I still don't see it as cheating. They used legal teams to win. This tournament was based on skills, and they won with skills.

It's also a pity official tournaments are never held in Europe.

 

[Shiv]

If we keep talking about skill, skarm should have been playing. Then again, he was against the rules and I guess that can't be accepted. If they thought we used unfair means or something like that then they might have done this for those reasons.

It doesn't really matter though, whats done is done, lets hope we don't get something like this next time round!

 

[Bluekikatana]

As for the Smogon "cheaters", I still don't see it as cheating. They used legal teams to win. This tournament was based on skills, and they won with skills.

To win a JAA is not based solely on battling skill. You need the battling skill to be victorious in your battles true, but to even get there; you also need the knowledge of the actual video game enough to replicate those high stats that will make your strategies more effective. You also need enough time and passion to devote to the game to make that happen and maybe even a little luck while you’re at that. If you only have netbattle skill (battling skill) and nothing else, then you won't be able to make a team without 3rd party cheating devices. Moreover, if you do that, then that is considered illegal from now on in the Nintendo Pokemon video game tournaments and will get you disqualified, even if you do manage to win.

Regardless of what one thinks is right; rules to a tournament are rules. That is part of the challenge in a tournament. I feel empathy for Skarm, as anyone should have been able to enter, but in anyone else’s case, their disqualification was a result of breaking the rules whether it was intentional or not, they weren’t the best suited winner for that particular competition. The rules to a tournament can’t always be what you want them to be, but if you can’t master them or follow them, then most likely someone who can will be victorious over you, especially if there are big prizes (money) involved.

 

[Shiv]

Some of them were just plain unlucky like Obi who had used a secondhand cart that he got (without resetting to save time for training) and which resulted in him being dq'ed because the previous owner had done some stupid sharking earlier. Whatever the case may be, whats done is done, there's no point in bringing all this stuff up, it won't make any difference.

 

[theamericandream38]

Yeah, BKK brings up a good point, but really BLJ was the only person who got caught cheating from smogon and actually did cheat. Altough it would have been awesome to see BLJ in their, especially considering his replacement, Tim Guo, got to the elite 8 and then lost to Calvin. It would have been sweet to have a smogon vs smogon match in the final four but alas, I guess that's what happens when you cheat and get caught. But yeah, like everyone else said, it's over and done with and hopefully there will be a next time.

 

[Kongler]

when we got there the brackets were made. then they switched it up. it seemed they had it planned before hand. i was hoping for some first round fodder but got wario. oh well, i will hopefully be around for the next championship in 2011.