aight got a block of time and we have a scum flip let's try and game solve this
texas toni metal sonic changedwawmen former hope duskfall jalmont apricity moody whydon caffeineboost jay viper
D1 vote count:
Final Vote Count
Metal Sonic (6): CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic
apricity (1): ragmatho/toni,
ChangedWawmen (1): MoodyCloud
Jalmont (1): Jalmont
Former Hope (1): ItzViper482
Not Voting: ChangedWawmen, Whydon, Former Hope
D1 conclusions: now that we have a scum flip we can start to make vc associations. typically a d1 voting situation will have three primary wagons to look in being the main wagon, the counter wagon, and the off wagon grouping but in this case we don't have a counter wagon so we get the following groupings:
a) CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic
b) rag/toni, MoodyCloud, Jalmont, Viper, Wawmen, Whydon, Former Hope
usually what we expect to find is at least one, usually two scum hiding off wagon for fear of being linked back to the day 1 wagon, not realizing that being off wagon is a wagon itself. it's very rare for all three scum to be on either wagon though, due to the difficulty of getting so many town to agree on the mislynch of another town.
thus, there is likely one scum among: Jay / Texas / apricity / Duskfall and one scum among toni / Viper / Wawmen / Whydon
D2 vote count:
CaffeineBoost (4): Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud
MoodyCloud (3): Jalmont, CaffeineBoost, Whydon
Duskfall98 (2): ChangedWawmen, apricity
apricity (1): Duskfall98
Not Voting: ItzViper482
this one is a fair bit trickier to analyze given the craziness leading up to deadline but i have a couple thoughts about this, first:
a) Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud
b) Whydon, Wawmen, apricity, Duskfall, Viper
the more i stare at how this fell out the worse this looks for whydon. we know that moody was the leading wagon right up until deadline when he ninja'd the vote which on the surface would seem like whydon would be pretty clear because why would he want to risk a moody lynch actually going through given his position on the wagon. but thinking a little bit deeper if moody and whydon are partners it makes perfect sense for him not to be worried given that he KNOWS that moody is going to be there to snake the vote and ensure the mislynch goes off.
taking that line of thought further we know now that moody was a wagon led by a cop guilty - this suggests to me that the early players on the CB wagon are likely going to be town. with as strongly as jalmont was pushing moody who was basically an idler to that point it would make very little sense for scum to coordinate and push a late day counterwagon potentially outing themselves in their defense, much smarter to let opposing town opinions surface and position yourself for a late day save as appears to have happened. for this reason i think jay looks particularly towny alongside myself while toni looks a lot worse, from a vc perspective a scum team of moody/whydon/toni makes a ton of sense especially considering that you would expect scum to be active players at the deadline with their voting to try and avoid getting lynched
that being said the toni connection is mostly conjecture given they've said literally nothing of substance so it's possible they were just a random vote that scum took advantage of and under those circumstances hiding somewhere on the off wagons makes sense if they aren't concerned about a moody lynch because they know he'll be there to save himself. generally vote lurking tends to be a player styling consistent across situations so looking at the overlap between the two off wagon voting groups gives wawmen and viper as possible matches for a moody/whydon team
final vote count for posterity though it's extremely difficult to get anything meaningful from:
MoodyCloud (5): apricity, whydon, Texas Cloverleaf, ItzViper482, ChangedWawmen
Not Voting: tonithetourguide, Jay (FT) Flush, MoodyCloud, Duskfall98
realistically you can make any kind of assumption about where scum are in relation to moody given how apparent it was that jalmont had a guilty on him. i'm of the opinion that scum are more likely to be present on the wagon than off to avoid the appearance of defense but i have to take another look at moody's stuff before drawing any associatives there
tl;dr of the VCA: pretty sure whydon is one of moody's partners, makes a ton of sense from a lot of angles with how d2 played out at the end. hard to say what the third partner is, connections to toni/viper/wawmen make a lot of sense but i'm skeptical because of the implication that the metal sonic wagon was entirely town which just seems unlikely mathematically, albeit not impossible given how overtly scummy ms was. I'm pretty comfortable putting Jay in my town block and i've been reading apricity and dusk as reasonably town so unless it's one of those two maybe it was just a full town d1 wagon?
going to try and take a look back through the thread to see what connections exist with moody and try and narrow down the possible partners to a moody/whydon team