NOC Hope+1 Game Thread

[vooper]

gl town yada yada yada

 

[vooper]

dont forget to look at hal some more for me and pce guys

 

[Asek]

Sorry, deadline was where viper last posted, have apointments for a while yet but final vc + flip will be up asap

 

[Asek]

Final Vote Count

ItzViper482 (4): apricity, Duskfall98, Whydon, Jay (FT) Flush

Duskfall98 (2): ChangedWawmen, ItzViper482

not voting: Texas Cloverleaf, tonithetourguide

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...PyQIqqjeY0Vb3MIEPwPZoL6zfA/edit#gid=177215384

 

[Asek]

ItzViper482 has been lynched

they were.....

Hide

Dear ItzViper482

You are KOSMOS

Hide

You are a Vanilla Town. Your vote is your weapon

You are aligned with the Good Guys. You win when Torna is eliminated

Deadline for night actions in a bit under 21 hours

 

[Asek]

tonithetourguide has died

they were...

Hide

Dear Ragmatho tonithetourguide

You are Theory

Hide

You are a Town Macho Doctor

Each night you may target a player to protect them from being killed that night by replying to this conversation with “Protect [PLAYER]”

You know that any protection targeting you will fail. Additionally, you know that if you and the other Macho Doctor target the same player, you will both fail. You will not be informed whether your action succeeds or not.

You are aligned with the Good Guys. You win when Torna is eliminated

Day 5 starts now. Deadline in 72 hours

Reminder that this is MYLO

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20180817T12&p0=152&font=cursive

 

[apricity]

jay clear

not changing my tr on changed

leaving whydon/texas/dusk

Whydon what happened at end of day there

 

[ChangedWawmen]

Damn, we're 6 people left. Better make that one count.

Ik it will sound sceptic, but there's no better thing rn than lynching Duskfall. It's been proven to be our safest bet. We don't have much on anyone else.

Vote Duskfall

 

[apricity]

Damn, we're 6 people left. Better make that one count.

Ik it will sound sceptic, but there's no better thing rn than lynching Duskfall. It's been proven to be our safest bet. We don't have much on anyone else.

Vote Duskfall

do you think the team is ever whydon/texas here

 

[apricity]

also i'm turboing anybody who suggests we no lynch today

 

[apricity]

is it just me or is it the case that if whydon actually scumread texas then he would've done more on that slot then just
a) say it's a good lynch but not really https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/hope-1-game-thread.3639774/page-10#post-7868957
b) half assed vote him https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/hope-1-game-thread.3639774/page-13#post-7873109
c) unvote and in subsequent posts just include him as part of the POE

idk if there is just a fear factor from me here, but IF i scumread texas then i would be on his ass like underwear, not just let one of the stronger players in this game and one that is on my scumlist coast to lylo

 

[apricity]

I'm actually so disappointed in tonis game if he was actually just back benching the whole game when he had information on who was town, even if he didn't want to publicly share it.

this reaction to toni claiming cop is weird. the no kill happened on day 4, so toni shared the clear info on the earliest possible day.

not to mention it's always a good thing to have someone in the POE just out themselves and claim, since either a 1v1 is set up when it's not m/lylo, or we get a clear on someone who we really want a clear on.

 

[apricity]

Unvote Apricity.

ill get back to this in a bit, upset I missed out on yesterday completey though.

what the fuck WAS this post lol

 

[apricity]

I mean just cause I'm under the knife I'm not gonna pull shit out of my arse. No one really can know for sure and I'm no different. I'll join a wagon for moody if that's who people think is the most likely out of the lurkers, but I really do think it's a shot in the dark and we are just hoping to hit the right person.

I will say though if you vote me out and I'm town you've just lost one of the people who actually showed activity and discuss things even if I wasn't great the start of day 2 which I admit. Overall I have been more important than someone such as say viper, moody, jay or Toni/rag.

dusk walk me through your day 2 action and your decision to stick your vote on me

 

[apricity]

yeah i'm kind of just sitting at the team being whydon/dusk or texas/dusk, i don't think whydon/texas is a thing, because it implies they've been mutually bussing since literally day 1 AND they double bussed moody as well. neither whydon nor texas would play like this.

lynch dusk, jay dies, no lynch at 4p mylo, and then whoever is left alive can figure out 3p lylo, probably ends up in a whydon/texas crossvote.

 

[apricity]

Well to be fair I’ve not played with whydon before. But Texas definitely wouldn’t be ok with this double bus strat.

Ok I’m prob going to check out for the night

 

[apricity]

Oh wait never mind whydon was in animal too.

Maybe I’ll reread that game see what pops out.

 

[Whydon]

apricity I had to pick up my sister from LA and traffic was really bad so rip phone

yeah that kinda sucks but I honestly think Duskfall is always lynched here? I wish we had more time so we could have flipped onto him yesterday but oh well it is what it is

 

[Duskfall98]

this reaction to toni claiming cop is weird. the no kill happened on day 4, so toni shared the clear info on the earliest possible day.

not to mention it's always a good thing to have someone in the POE just out themselves and claim, since either a 1v1 is set up when it's not m/lylo, or we get a clear on someone who we really want a clear on.

It's not about him claiming, it's about him never getting involved at all in the game as one of our most important members. The fact he never even bothered voting after claiming either is such a smack in the face to me. He really could have helped more throughout imo.

 

[Duskfall98]

what the fuck WAS this post lol

I think you are reading too much into that post maybe. I had just logged on to see who got lynched and was ready to post and I saw someone else got lynched and it was night again lol.

 

[Duskfall98]

Also I only had like 5 min there but I wanted to unvote you there so that's why I said I would get back to my reasoning later.

 

[Duskfall98]

dusk walk me through your day 2 action and your decision to stick your vote on me

I looked at the doc about 10 min before deadline and you were registered as tied in first there. Because I thought you were scum on day two I wanted to stick with that and hope someone else voted for you. I later realised that the doc was not updated at that time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...yQIqqjeY0Vb3MIEPwPZoL6zfA/edit#gid=1640232592

This was the sheet, at the time I checked caffeineboost and moody had not voted for each other (well the doc wasn't updated to show they had) so you still appeared to have 3 votes. Had I known I was the only one on you I would've changed to moody since it was him or caffeineboost I believe, and I had just townread caffeine to texas in the posts approaching that lynch.

 

[Duskfall98]

For me I think it is whydon/texas. Obviously I know its not me hahah. But I really want to refer back to the angleshoot attempt. I would have to be out of my mind to ever try that as scum. Do you really think I am good enough player to predict that asek would not let me do it? That bluff would be out of this world. Quite frankly I am flattered if people think I could do that.

I would just like to comment that the two people who had a problem with that attempt were whydon/texas who I think are probably scum now. Either way if I am voted out today town lose.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

aight got a block of time and we have a scum flip let's try and game solve this

texas toni metal sonic changedwawmen former hope duskfall jalmont apricity moody whydon caffeineboost jay viper

D1 vote count:

Final Vote Count

Metal Sonic (6): CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic

apricity (1): ragmatho/toni,
ChangedWawmen (1): MoodyCloud
Jalmont (1): Jalmont
Former Hope (1): ItzViper482

Not Voting: ChangedWawmen, Whydon, Former Hope

D1 conclusions: now that we have a scum flip we can start to make vc associations. typically a d1 voting situation will have three primary wagons to look in being the main wagon, the counter wagon, and the off wagon grouping but in this case we don't have a counter wagon so we get the following groupings:

a) CaffeineBoost, Jay (FT) Flush, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Duskfall98, Metal Sonic
b) rag/toni, MoodyCloud, Jalmont, Viper, Wawmen, Whydon, Former Hope

usually what we expect to find is at least one, usually two scum hiding off wagon for fear of being linked back to the day 1 wagon, not realizing that being off wagon is a wagon itself. it's very rare for all three scum to be on either wagon though, due to the difficulty of getting so many town to agree on the mislynch of another town.

thus, there is likely one scum among: Jay / Texas / apricity / Duskfall and one scum among toni / Viper / Wawmen / Whydon

D2 vote count:

CaffeineBoost (4): Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud

MoodyCloud (3): Jalmont, CaffeineBoost, Whydon

Duskfall98 (2): ChangedWawmen, apricity

apricity (1): Duskfall98

Not Voting: ItzViper482

this one is a fair bit trickier to analyze given the craziness leading up to deadline but i have a couple thoughts about this, first:

a) Texas Cloverleaf, Jay (FT) Flush, tonithetourguide, MoodyCloud

b) Whydon, Wawmen, apricity, Duskfall, Viper

the more i stare at how this fell out the worse this looks for whydon. we know that moody was the leading wagon right up until deadline when he ninja'd the vote which on the surface would seem like whydon would be pretty clear because why would he want to risk a moody lynch actually going through given his position on the wagon. but thinking a little bit deeper if moody and whydon are partners it makes perfect sense for him not to be worried given that he KNOWS that moody is going to be there to snake the vote and ensure the mislynch goes off.

taking that line of thought further we know now that moody was a wagon led by a cop guilty - this suggests to me that the early players on the CB wagon are likely going to be town. with as strongly as jalmont was pushing moody who was basically an idler to that point it would make very little sense for scum to coordinate and push a late day counterwagon potentially outing themselves in their defense, much smarter to let opposing town opinions surface and position yourself for a late day save as appears to have happened. for this reason i think jay looks particularly towny alongside myself while toni looks a lot worse, from a vc perspective a scum team of moody/whydon/toni makes a ton of sense especially considering that you would expect scum to be active players at the deadline with their voting to try and avoid getting lynched

that being said the toni connection is mostly conjecture given they've said literally nothing of substance so it's possible they were just a random vote that scum took advantage of and under those circumstances hiding somewhere on the off wagons makes sense if they aren't concerned about a moody lynch because they know he'll be there to save himself. generally vote lurking tends to be a player styling consistent across situations so looking at the overlap between the two off wagon voting groups gives wawmen and viper as possible matches for a moody/whydon team

final vote count for posterity though it's extremely difficult to get anything meaningful from:

MoodyCloud (5): apricity, whydon, Texas Cloverleaf, ItzViper482, ChangedWawmen

Not Voting: tonithetourguide, Jay (FT) Flush, MoodyCloud, Duskfall98

realistically you can make any kind of assumption about where scum are in relation to moody given how apparent it was that jalmont had a guilty on him. i'm of the opinion that scum are more likely to be present on the wagon than off to avoid the appearance of defense but i have to take another look at moody's stuff before drawing any associatives there

tl;dr of the VCA: pretty sure whydon is one of moody's partners, makes a ton of sense from a lot of angles with how d2 played out at the end. hard to say what the third partner is, connections to toni/viper/wawmen make a lot of sense but i'm skeptical because of the implication that the metal sonic wagon was entirely town which just seems unlikely mathematically, albeit not impossible given how overtly scummy ms was. I'm pretty comfortable putting Jay in my town block and i've been reading apricity and dusk as reasonably town so unless it's one of those two maybe it was just a full town d1 wagon?

going to try and take a look back through the thread to see what connections exist with moody and try and narrow down the possible partners to a moody/whydon team

Only thing I see making sense here is whydon/dusk, whydon fits in the best with the VCA and has gone under the radar for the most part since his towny d1 and dusk's angleshoot attempt looks more and more like a panicy hail Mary with every flip, and is the only way I see that MS wasn't a full town wagon

Jay is cleared, apricity is lock town, and wawmen looks clean enough that he's almost definitely the deciding vote in lylo

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Vote whydon because he really hasn't had enough pressure this game, but dusk should keep us alive here too