so the first thing i did was go back through every page of d1 while ctrl+f-ing Haruno, looking for others' interactions with Haruno and vice-versa
Jalmont: basically wanted a policy lynch. was on wagon at eod
Earlio: zilch
Former Hope: hopped on haruno wagon shortly before deadline, with a post I thought was fairly weak
Metal Sonic: very vocal about wanting haruno shot
apricity: none
XnadrojX: zero
Hawkie: passively defended Haruno by essentially accusing Jalmont of bullying and suggesting that Jalmont himself was scum
Aubisio: nada
i think jalmont's treatment of haruno is essentially NAI? from what i recall of playing with jalmont, i think this is pretty much how he'd react to haruno regardless, especially if haruno's level of contribution was around where it was for this game
former hope's is really odd. had haruno flipped town i'd lynch this instantly, because the vote was pretty out of left field and reeks of bandwagoning. i have two issues with this particular line of thinking:
-generally, such a vote is done to save a mafia teammate and lynch a townie. given that the top wagon at the time is myself, who i'm fairly sure is town, and that the victim is haruno, who i'm fairly sure was not, this doesn't apply at all
-when scum are bussing, the first thing i look for is the stench of TMI. is this scumread suspiciously well-informed? does it come out of nowhere, but with the substance of a read that a townie would have to work at for hours? if it is, you've probably got TMI - you KNOW the person you're voting is scum, you just have to quantify why to the sheeple (except non-sarcastically). former hope's post... doesn't feel like tmi
metal sonic is someone i know to have large cojones. he likes theatrics, taking risks, fancy plays. a part of me wonders if his interactions with haruno were simply an attempt to keep the lynch off of him on d1 - certainly he could shoot elsewhere and then claim his shot were blocked. i would need to reread the posts in question, and his larger body of work as a whole, but i don't think it's out of the question
hawkie's is perhaps the hardest to evaluate in a vacuum. i won't make a call on whether or not his statement towards jalmont was justified - i don't want to stir up drama mid-game - but it essentially made it so that any evaluation of his behavior towards haruno has to be made through an emotionally-tinted lens, which is not something i'm very good at. at all.
i came into this post thinking i was going to eventually conclude that there was a busser on haruno. after all, they have four more people left to cast votes the next day, and four more people to fire shots the next night. coming out of this post, i'm starting to think that i may have been wrong in that assumption. former hope, i want to say, is town. the manner in which the post was made is pretty strange, yes, but i think it's ESPECIALLY strange coming from mafia. jalmont is a tougher call, and i'd need to take another look at his posting patterns as a whole, but i find it hard to believe he just parks his vote on a mafia teammate. if a bus is the call, there'd surely be more votes on haruno, and if a bus isn't the call, i think jalmont and/or his teammates would be more aware of the wagon state and get that vote moved, or at least get more piled onto my wagon.
this leads me to the following conclusion: it's unlikely that haruno's partners were available to vote at eod1
if they're gonna bus, i have to think they commit to that shit. if they aren't, i don't think they cut it so close. the tied vote makes me think that they simply weren't around and didn't realize the tied vote was a thing.
of course the other possibility is that they didn't realize knights goofed the votecount and figured haruno was sunk anyways. this would imply that there may have been a mafioso or two around, but not enough to swing a wagon off an assumed four-vote haruno
the third option is that i'm dumb and wrong but i hope i'm not!