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Smogon Premier League XV - Semifinals [Tiebreaker @ Post 63]
- Thread starter Theia
- Start date
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LISAN AL GAIB
Wait2Seconds
Slayer
Let's go le don 
Circus Maximus Tigers (1) vs (2) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs Hellom - 51 - 49 Trosko has that killer instinct. Is this the game Hellom finally loses or does he remain perfect? After a long hiatus Trosko came back for SPL and reminded everyone why he was one of the best.
DPP OU: 45 - 55 - Le Don vs Elodin More experienced player vs. mainer - I think Elodin’s experience will help him win here. Le Don has been getting fairly lucky lately but he did just slap around Sergio Aguero. Elodin also has the sub in advantage because Le Don has hundreds of replays.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Felix - 45 - 55 - Can M Dragon win? Of course it’s Mariano but Felix should win all things considered. One of the most consistent RBY players and he gets to bo3.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (1) vs (2) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs Stresh - 49 - 51 I want to believe in Stresh over oldspicemike but Stresh has been dodging SV games all season. He had a triumphant season last year and went perfect in WCOP but this meta is different. Regardless, I favor experience in a bo3. Myjava has looked very solid this season but tie breaks are big big moments, can he live up to his past performances?
DPP OU: Soulwind vs Fakes - 48 - 52 Last season I begged Mannat to put me in TB if we tied raiders which would’ve been first dpp TB in 4 years. One year later we get 2 DPP TB’s for the first time (ever?). Anyways, he prob wouldn’t have done it but Fakes is the goat. Soulwind had a better showing than Fakes in JCI but Fakes may have not been too motivated. If I were to guess Fakes plays more DPP throughout the year and both have plenty of old games to scout. Soulwind has previously won a picked into tie break (once or twice?) in DPP - can he do it again?
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Za Meowdo - 60 - 40 If RBY wasn’t a ridiculous gen where anyone can beat anyone I’d probably do this higher. I’m going to guess Charm has been slapping around Khaetis in tests all season or something. I’m surprised Malekith isn’t here too. Charm has been playing well but I think if hax is even close to neutral Troller’s experience and memorization of certain lines will be too much.
I hope for even luck and the best teams to win. Good luck to all.
SV OU: Trosko vs Hellom - 51 - 49 Trosko has that killer instinct. Is this the game Hellom finally loses or does he remain perfect? After a long hiatus Trosko came back for SPL and reminded everyone why he was one of the best.
DPP OU: 45 - 55 - Le Don vs Elodin More experienced player vs. mainer - I think Elodin’s experience will help him win here. Le Don has been getting fairly lucky lately but he did just slap around Sergio Aguero. Elodin also has the sub in advantage because Le Don has hundreds of replays.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Felix - 45 - 55 - Can M Dragon win? Of course it’s Mariano but Felix should win all things considered. One of the most consistent RBY players and he gets to bo3.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (1) vs (2) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs Stresh - 49 - 51 I want to believe in Stresh over oldspicemike but Stresh has been dodging SV games all season. He had a triumphant season last year and went perfect in WCOP but this meta is different. Regardless, I favor experience in a bo3. Myjava has looked very solid this season but tie breaks are big big moments, can he live up to his past performances?
DPP OU: Soulwind vs Fakes - 48 - 52 Last season I begged Mannat to put me in TB if we tied raiders which would’ve been first dpp TB in 4 years. One year later we get 2 DPP TB’s for the first time (ever?). Anyways, he prob wouldn’t have done it but Fakes is the goat. Soulwind had a better showing than Fakes in JCI but Fakes may have not been too motivated. If I were to guess Fakes plays more DPP throughout the year and both have plenty of old games to scout. Soulwind has previously won a picked into tie break (once or twice?) in DPP - can he do it again?
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Za Meowdo - 60 - 40 If RBY wasn’t a ridiculous gen where anyone can beat anyone I’d probably do this higher. I’m going to guess Charm has been slapping around Khaetis in tests all season or something. I’m surprised Malekith isn’t here too. Charm has been playing well but I think if hax is even close to neutral Troller’s experience and memorization of certain lines will be too much.
I hope for even luck and the best teams to win. Good luck to all.
Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
DPP OU: Le Don vs LISAN AL GAIB
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefahrlicher Random
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
DPP OU: Le Don vs LISAN AL GAIB
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefahrlicher Random
I have never made a players bet but this is my first time
Circus Maximus Tigers (2) vs (0) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
Circus Maximus Tigers (2) vs (0) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
HelloMuad'Dib
double tiebreakers kinda heat
To celebrate how bout we stop loading gambit tusk and use some real mons instead:
To celebrate how bout we stop loading gambit tusk and use some real mons instead:
Attachments
Circus Maximus Tigers (2) vs (1) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
A rematch from early in the season between two of the top SV records, this game lacks nothing in terms of hype. hellom's performance is better described with numbers than with words, and the set of players that should be bolded against him right now is arguably empty. However, I get the feeling that the pressure of The Streak alongside fatigue in a tier he doesn't love is adding up heading into this tiebreak. Meanwhile, I imagine Trosko is more looking forward to this rematch as the loser of their first encounter and is arguably at the top of the list of players that could end hellom's streak regardless. hellom may be the best (sorry, lax), but I'm afraid that the 11-0 may not be in the cards, their heart notwithstanding.
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
A surprising pick from the Tigers. It seems they are targeting the Scooters' DPP struggles as much as if not more than they are going with what they are best at. However, Le Don is no slouch and has a good chance here to move to 3-0 against the Scooters' this season. The information asymmetry plays in elodin's favor here, and I would not put him as a large underdog, but I think Le Don's experience in the tier is more important here. That said, carrying the trust of his team in the highest stakes game he's played, Le Don will have a tough task ahead of him if he aims to flip the Burger.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
By now I really should have learned to not bet against the Dragon, but Felix's mastery of this tier is hard to not favor. I'm looking forward to whatever one-liner M Dragon drops to punctuate his win if he manages to once again clutch in this spot, but I think the User of Cheats will best the Spaniard this time.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (3) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs xavgb
Speaking of Spaniards losing to cheats, the timeline to get us to this tiebreak is crazy. In keeping with the theme, the Ruiners decided to make their tiebreak picks all controversial, just like decision that got us here. In SV, they've chosen a player who's negative in this tour over believing that mike, who's 8-0 against the rest of the field, can improve to 1-2 against myjava in this tour. On the other side, myjava's breakout performance this tour combined with CTC's untimely ban has given them an easy choice for who to champion them in SV. After smoking the Ruiners 4-0 in the semis, it seems myjava and the Tyrants have good odds to beat stresh here, who history has not favored in this position.
DPP OU: SoulWind vs Fakes
After seeing how well clicking Iron Head against SoulWind worked last week, the Ruiners are increasing their chances at repeating such antics by going with DPP as the tier of choice to fight him in. Speaking of 60% chances, I'd say that's a decent estimate of the likelihood that SoulWind drops a "gg" after this game; make of that what you will. In all seriousness, this game was very hard to pick a favorite for, and Fakes in his tier of choice is a threat and a half. His self-proclaimed lack of involvement in DPP in a Long time has me defaulting to favoring one of the Greatest to invalidate the opponent's tiebreak pick once more.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Charmflash
In a move the Stours discord had to see to believe, the Ruiners are favoring Charm over "third time's the charm" for Khaetis in RBY. I have since learned that Charm has been laddering RBY recently, so this is not as out of the blue as it otherwise would be. Troller simply must be bolded here, but two SPLs ago we were reminded that this is no guarantee. Charm is certainly a great player and only needs to be a flash in the pan in RBY to take this; I'm excited to see what he's cooked.
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
A rematch from early in the season between two of the top SV records, this game lacks nothing in terms of hype. hellom's performance is better described with numbers than with words, and the set of players that should be bolded against him right now is arguably empty. However, I get the feeling that the pressure of The Streak alongside fatigue in a tier he doesn't love is adding up heading into this tiebreak. Meanwhile, I imagine Trosko is more looking forward to this rematch as the loser of their first encounter and is arguably at the top of the list of players that could end hellom's streak regardless. hellom may be the best (sorry, lax), but I'm afraid that the 11-0 may not be in the cards, their heart notwithstanding.
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
A surprising pick from the Tigers. It seems they are targeting the Scooters' DPP struggles as much as if not more than they are going with what they are best at. However, Le Don is no slouch and has a good chance here to move to 3-0 against the Scooters' this season. The information asymmetry plays in elodin's favor here, and I would not put him as a large underdog, but I think Le Don's experience in the tier is more important here. That said, carrying the trust of his team in the highest stakes game he's played, Le Don will have a tough task ahead of him if he aims to flip the Burger.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
By now I really should have learned to not bet against the Dragon, but Felix's mastery of this tier is hard to not favor. I'm looking forward to whatever one-liner M Dragon drops to punctuate his win if he manages to once again clutch in this spot, but I think the User of Cheats will best the Spaniard this time.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (3) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs xavgb
Speaking of Spaniards losing to cheats, the timeline to get us to this tiebreak is crazy. In keeping with the theme, the Ruiners decided to make their tiebreak picks all controversial, just like decision that got us here. In SV, they've chosen a player who's negative in this tour over believing that mike, who's 8-0 against the rest of the field, can improve to 1-2 against myjava in this tour. On the other side, myjava's breakout performance this tour combined with CTC's untimely ban has given them an easy choice for who to champion them in SV. After smoking the Ruiners 4-0 in the semis, it seems myjava and the Tyrants have good odds to beat stresh here, who history has not favored in this position.
DPP OU: SoulWind vs Fakes
After seeing how well clicking Iron Head against SoulWind worked last week, the Ruiners are increasing their chances at repeating such antics by going with DPP as the tier of choice to fight him in. Speaking of 60% chances, I'd say that's a decent estimate of the likelihood that SoulWind drops a "gg" after this game; make of that what you will. In all seriousness, this game was very hard to pick a favorite for, and Fakes in his tier of choice is a threat and a half. His self-proclaimed lack of involvement in DPP in a Long time has me defaulting to favoring one of the Greatest to invalidate the opponent's tiebreak pick once more.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Charmflash
In a move the Stours discord had to see to believe, the Ruiners are favoring Charm over "third time's the charm" for Khaetis in RBY. I have since learned that Charm has been laddering RBY recently, so this is not as out of the blue as it otherwise would be. Troller simply must be bolded here, but two SPLs ago we were reminded that this is no guarantee. Charm is certainly a great player and only needs to be a flash in the pan in RBY to take this; I'm excited to see what he's cooked.
Circus Maximus Tigers (1) vs (2) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
Trosko will break the streak. The Lesnar to the Taker, The Kevin Nash to the Goldberg. I think the pressure of the streak will build up. Plus I'm also rooting for Trosko cuz he's come back after a while and proven to the public that he's still one of the best.
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
Man this is hard. I want Le Don to win. But idk man I just think the info advantage will be a bit too much. Le Don is the mainer so this is a 50-50 basically but I do think elodin has the slight edge.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
I have bet against Dragon in the past. I have been wrong every time. But I think this is where the streak ends. Listen, if Ardorin wins, which is still very much possible, I won't be that surprised as he's on the Spaintugal RBYWC team with Kenix and Scep which means they will help in prep(I hope) and thus, Mariano is not a sitting duck. He has also played this tier for far longer than Felix, even before the paraslam changes. But that play has been infrequent. Like I said, this is one of the GOATs but, if Dragon wins, this would legit be an upset.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (2) vs (1) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs xavgb
This is also hard. I think this is rly even but damnit man not seeing CTC in that tiebreak slot is dissapointing. I just flipped a coin ngl
DPP OU: SoulWind vs Fakes
I want Tyrants to move on so that they can finally win. This might go both ways. 51-49 imo
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Charmflash
I'll do anything if Charmflash wins. If Charmflash wins I will listen to iPhone alarm for 10 hours straight. I am in no risk. Khaetis shoulda been sent out imo. Atleast then it wouldn't be a literal 100-0.
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
Trosko will break the streak. The Lesnar to the Taker, The Kevin Nash to the Goldberg. I think the pressure of the streak will build up. Plus I'm also rooting for Trosko cuz he's come back after a while and proven to the public that he's still one of the best.
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
Man this is hard. I want Le Don to win. But idk man I just think the info advantage will be a bit too much. Le Don is the mainer so this is a 50-50 basically but I do think elodin has the slight edge.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
I have bet against Dragon in the past. I have been wrong every time. But I think this is where the streak ends. Listen, if Ardorin wins, which is still very much possible, I won't be that surprised as he's on the Spaintugal RBYWC team with Kenix and Scep which means they will help in prep(I hope) and thus, Mariano is not a sitting duck. He has also played this tier for far longer than Felix, even before the paraslam changes. But that play has been infrequent. Like I said, this is one of the GOATs but, if Dragon wins, this would legit be an upset.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (2) vs (1) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs xavgb
This is also hard. I think this is rly even but damnit man not seeing CTC in that tiebreak slot is dissapointing. I just flipped a coin ngl
DPP OU: SoulWind vs Fakes
I want Tyrants to move on so that they can finally win. This might go both ways. 51-49 imo
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Charmflash
I'll do anything if Charmflash wins. If Charmflash wins I will listen to iPhone alarm for 10 hours straight. I am in no risk. Khaetis shoulda been sent out imo. Atleast then it wouldn't be a literal 100-0.
Rooting for Gefährlicher Random
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